Chinese solar module prices expected to drop by 15% between Q4 2022 - Q4 2023

The China-based engineering consultancy, CEA has projected a 15% reduction in module prices in China by Q4 of 2023, partially attributable to the declining polysilicon prices. According to the consultancy firm, Utility-Scale TOPCon technology is expected to increase in popularity and become the de-facto module of choice from 2024, with the price gap with PERC technology narrowing. Although the latter would still be more cost-effective in the shorter term, CEA anticipates that by Q1 of 2025, monofacial back sheet TOPCon modules will cost as much as bifacial double-glass PERC modules with 210mm cells.

Further, module prices across China are expected to dip 6% between Q1 2024 and Q1 2025. Meanwhile, global PV manufacturing capacity across the value chain is set to double, with polysilicon even experiencing a quadrupling effect, although it remains heavily concentrated in China. While the production capacity is predicted to exceed demand by 2027, with 1,000 GW of production capacity per year and installations of up to 500 GW per year, this enterprise may face considerable oversupply pressures.

CEA's modeling system presents an independent source of market intelligence, offering reliable forecasts of supply and demand scenarios for material supply chains and technology applications. The report suggests that there will be several influencing factors arising from these projections, including price and capacity trends, amongst others.